Sudan Referendem May Be Only the Beginning

By Jim Lobe

(IPS/GIN) - U.S. officials and independent experts are warning that the situation in both the north and the south is likely to remain very fragile for some time to come after the referendum on independence for South Sudan. Results of the week-long referendum, which started Jan. 9, will not be known for some time.

Ensuring that the referendum's outcome - projected to overwhelmingly favor secession - is respected and that the as-yet-unfulfilled provisions of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between Khartoum and the Sudanese People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) are completed will require continued high-level attention from the international community, according to analysts.

"The plan is absolutely to stay engaged," Gayle Smith, a Sudan specialist on President Barack Obama's National Security Council, told an audience at the Brookings Institution. "There is no expectation that we're going to dial (our involvement in Sudan) back," she added, noting that Washington is also committed to mobilize support from other key players.

President Obama issued a statement, congratulating the Sudanese people, the government of Sudan, and the government of Southern Sudan at the end of the historic vote.

"The sight of so many Sudanese casting their votes in a peaceful and orderly fashion was an inspiration to the world and a tribute to the determination of the people and leaders of south Sudan to forge a better future," he said. "The referendum now moves into another phase, and while official results will not be available for some time, independent observers have been extremely encouraged by the credibility of the process to date.  We urge all parties to continue to urge calm and show restraint as the parties work to complete implementation of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement. The United States will continue to assist the parties amid the tough challenges and historic opportunities that lie ahead."

Despite well-wishes, analysts are concerned that the referendum results could stoke renewed tensions and violence in other restive regions, such as Darfur, South Kordofan, and the Upper Nile regions, that could threaten the north's integrity.

"The situation in the North is very fragile and needs to be managed very carefully," according to Hilde Johnson, the former Norwegian development minister who played a critical role in negotiating the CPA and has just published a book on her experience, "Waging Peace in Sudan".

"If the situation is not managed well, the risk is not only a failed state (in Sudan), but a fragmented state as well," Johnson, currently deputy executive director of the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF), told the same Brookings audience.

The stakes are very high. If the results of the referendum are rejected by Khartoum, the civil war that was halted by the CPA is considered highly likely to resume. Some two million people, the vast majority of them southerners, are believed to have died as a result of that conflict.

Officials and experts had been encouraged by the smoother-than-expected voter registration process in advance of the referendum. Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir travelled to the southern capital of Juba and appeared to accept the inevitability of the south's independence.

"…I will be happy if we have peace in Sudan between the two sides," said Bashir, who has been indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes and genocide in connection with his government's brutal counterinsurgency campaign in Darfur that was launched in 2003.

"Even after the southern state is born, we are ready in the Khartoum government to offer any technical or logistical support and training or advice. We are ready to help," he added.

Still, distrust of Bashir and his government remains high here, particularly in light of their failure to date to reach agreement with the south's government, headed by Vice President Salva Kirr Mayardit, on several key provisions of the CPA.

In November, the Obama Administration indicated it would remove Sudan from its list of state sponsors of terrorism as early as next July if the referendum goes smoothly and several other key pending CPA provisions are resolved.

Williamson and other analysts agree that neither side has an interest in re-igniting the civil war, but warn that violent incidents - such as one that triggered the burning of the town of Abyei in May 2008, or deliberate provocations by spoilers - could quickly spiral out of control.

"The United States must be prepared to respond to any eventuality," Democratic Rep. Donald Payne, a long-time critic of Bashir, who, like Williamson, has been sceptical of Khartoum's sincerity. He called for "comprehensive contingency planning", subject to continuous review "throughout the foreseeable future".

Special to the Trice Edney News Wire from GIN